View Full Version : BOTP: WTA Pick 'em, US Open 2012 (Deadline 4pm, Mon 27 Aug)
Hello!
Just thought that I'd get this thread started nice and early, to let you know that we will be doing a BOTP for the US Open.
This will be the 4th US Open BOTP - well, unofficially the 5th one, as I think that nevets and I tested the BOTP model during the US Open in 2008 - I think that nevets won that one! I recall being too disorganised to start BOTP for the Aus Open in 2009 - and it eventually got going for the French Open that year.
So, this will be the 15th or 16th slam BOTP - probably 15th - the first was a rehearsal...
Usual stuff - will get an entry form to you as soon as I can after the main draw is available. If the draw takes place on Friday, then the earliest that I can do this is Saturday. If Saturday, then probably Sunday morning..
Hopefully you will be able to take part :)
RoastLamb
20-08-2012, 23:33
I'm going for Serena again. Hope I have better luck than I did at the previous two slams. Picked Serena to win RG, Shazza won. Picked Shazza for Wimbly, Serena won. :doh:
DaveArneRiise
21-08-2012, 10:54
Who won Montreal wta? Was it Barthel?
RoastLamb
21-08-2012, 18:07
Kvitova beat Li Na in Montreal.
Kvitova's first title on North American soil, apparently.
And I think that Li's title in Cincy was her first title since she won the French Open last year..
And final stat. Kerber is now ranked 6. The highest-ranked German WTA player since Steffi Graf.
Hello,
With the qualifiers now placed, the entry form is attached.
We all therefore have over 2 and a half days to complete this, which seems quite leisurely, compared with, say, the French Open!
From first glance at the draw it looked as if the Brits had some tough first round matches..
If you have any queries then give me a shout. From recent experience, it is probably easiest to e-mail a completed excel file over to ccbotp@hotmail.com
But if that is not feasible then we can find other ways.
DaveArneRiise
26-08-2012, 11:57
Sent mine via e-mail.. cheers
Sent mine via e-mail.. cheers
Confirmed as received :)
Mine are posted over at cc :)
JAMES4578
26-08-2012, 22:17
I've also entered over at CC, Thanks Super8!:clap:
Quick confirmation of receipt of cazza & Linda's entries - and James, lizzim's posts over at CC.
Still plenty of time for other folk to take part..
Sallydaisy
27-08-2012, 15:26
Hi Super8 - I PM'd mine, hope that is OK?
Play is now underway ...
RoastLamb
27-08-2012, 16:57
I did mine by email yesterday.
3/4 before the rain stopped play.
Hi Super8 - I PM'd mine, hope that is OK?
Play is now underway ...
Hello - yip, that is fine - was a bit of a surprise to receive 6 pms!! Will give you a shout if there are any issues :)
Hello!
Quick BOTP update - we have the following taking part:
Big Al
Cazza99
Dark Necrofear
fah51
DaveArneRiise
icona
Helen40
James4578
Liam Valid
Linda
Lizzim
Mojoworking
nevets
Northernlight/Super8
RoastLamb
SallyDaisy
T01
Tabbles
Tlim
VivaHate
Glad to have you all on board! Should be an interesting tournament, I think.
And of course if you have e-mailed/ posted/ pm'd predictions, and don't see your name on this list, then please let me know..
..and here is what you all predicted (file for download due to attachment size!)
..and here are the percentage picks, by quarter..
BOTP Results/ Report: Day 01
Hello, and welcome! Day 01’s results/ stats are as follows:
”100%ers”
(1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) d. Alexandra Panova (RUS) 60 61
(3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) d. Melinda Czink (HUN) 62 62
(5) Petra Kvitova (CZE) d. Polona Hercog (SLO) 76(6) 61
(11) Marion Bartoli (FRA) d. Jamie Hampton (USA) 63 76(5)
(23) Kim Clijsters (BEL) d. (WC) Victoria Duval (USA) 63 61
(25) Yanina Wickmayer (BEL) d. (Q) Julia Glushko (ISR) 75 62
Laura Robson (GBR) d. (Q) Samantha Crawford (USA) 63 76(6)
Nice to see a Brit in round 2! Yay Laura
”Nearly 100%ers”
(7) Samantha Stosur (AUS) d. Petra Martic (CRO) 61 61 (95-5)
(9) Li Na (CHN) d. Heather Watson (GBR) 62 63 (95-5)
(19) Nadia Petrova (RUS) d. Jarmila Gajdosova (AUS) 63 76(3) (95-5)
(28) Zheng Jie (CHN) d. Virginie Razzano (FRA) 46 62 ret. (right hip injury) (95-5)
(31) Varvara Lepchenko (USA) d. Mathilde Johansson (FRA) 63 36 75 (95-5)
Aleksandra Wozniak (CAN) d. Alexandra Cadantu (ROU) 60 63 (95-5)
AlizŽ Cornet (FRA) d. (WC) Nicole Gibbs (USA) 75 63 (95-5)
(15) Lucie Safarova d. (WC) Melanie Oudin (USA) 64 60 (90-10)
(Q) Anastasia Rodionova (AUS) d. (WC) Julia Cohen (USA) 63 60 (90-10)
Casey Dellacqua (AUS) d. (Q) Lesia Tsurenko (UKR) 62 63 (85-15)
Lots of lone maverick picks! Sally was blazing the maverick trail with a few of these. Sometimes they come up trumps though, so always worth a shot. Her pick of Heather to beat Na Li would certainly have rocked the BOTP boat, with many folk predicting the mercurial Na to go far in the tournament.
I think that Sam Stosur was about 4-5 points from achieving a Golden Set against Petra Martic in the first set – but could have misread that from somewhere..
”50:50 Splits”
(17) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) d. Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) 64 76(1) (55-45)
Pauline Parmentier (FRA) d. Michaella Krajicek (NED) 62 64 (55-45)
Anna Tatishvili (GEO) d. StŽphanie Foretz Gacon (FRA) 62 60 (50-50)
(Q) Magdalena Rybarikova (SVK) d. Hsieh Su-Wei (TPE) 63 26 63 (45-55)
Simona Halep (ROU) d. Iveta Benesova (CZE) 75 76(5) (45-55)
These matches were certainly tricky picks on paper. On the hard courts themselves, only one of them went to 3 sets though.
”Minority Picks”
Lourdes Dom’nguez Lino (ESP) d. Sesil Karatantcheva (KAZ) 64 61 (40-60)
Mandy Minella (LUX) d. (WC) Olivia Rogowska (AUS) 62 36 63 (35-65)
Lucie Hradecka (CZE) d. (27) Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP) 63 63 (35-65)
(Q) Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) d. Barbora Zahlavova Strycova (CZE) 63 36 63 (35-65)
(Q) Edina Gallovits-Hall (ROU) d. (Q) Stefanie Voegele (SUI) 75 64 (30-70)
(WC) Mallory Burdette (USA) d. Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) 64 63 (30-70)
”Deutschland Unter Alles?”
(WC) Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) d. Marina Erakovic (NZL) 75 64 (5-95)
Romina Oprandi (SUI) d. Andrea Petkovic (GER) 62 75 (10-90)
Sorana Cirstea (ROU) d. (16) Sabine Lisicki (GER) 46 62 62 (5-95)
(Q) Kristyna Pliskova (CZE) d. (18) Julia Goerges (GER) 76(4) 61 (0-100)
Well, what happened to the girls from Germany today? Petko, fair enough – not exactly match-fit. But Sabine, Julia – what on earth happened? Sorana’s win was a good one for Linda who was the only person to pick this upset. Bravo Linda!
BOTP Day 01: Summary
As per usual on day 01, it is a mad scramble of picking up single points here and there, and then seeing how the cards have landed after the 32 matches have been completed.
Early pace-setters are Linda and nevets, with a very handy 25 correct picks out of 32, closely followed by Big Al and Cazza. At the other end of the table, many of Sally’s maverick picks didn’t quite come off, and already has some ground to make up on Mojo, Tabbles and T01. However, with another 32 1-pointers up for grabs tomorrow, I suspect it will be 'BOTP musical chairs' after day 2.
BOTP Report: Day 02
Day 02 saw the completion of the round 01 matches. Results, BOTP stats as follows:
’Seeds & Venus off to a Good Start’
(2) Agnieszka RadwanskaÊ(POL) d. Nina BratchikovaÊ(RUS)Ê61 61
(4) Serena Williams (USA) d. Coco Vandeweghe (USA) 61 61
(6) Angelique Kerber (GER) d. Anne Keothavong (GBR) 62 60
(10) Sara Errani (ITA) d. Garbine Muguruza (ESP) 63 67(6) 61
(12) Ana Ivanovic (SRB) d. (Q) Elina Svitolina (UKR) 63 62
(13) Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) d. Johanna Larsson (SWE) 67(5) 62 60
(14) Maria Kirilenko (RUS) d. Chanelle Scheepers (RSA) 62 61
Venus Williams (USA) d. (WC) Bethanie Mattek-Sands (USA) 63 61
Well, with the notable exception of Errani’s 3-setter against Garbine Muguruza (no, hadn’t heard of her either) and little Dom’s initial struggle against Jo Larsson, these were pretty one-sided affairs.
Anne Keo was pretty much outplayed by Angie Kerber, who bucked the trend of underperforming German players. Kerber will play Venus in round 2 – I think that this might be a ‘BOTP swing match’ as many folk have picked either player to make good progress in the tournament.
’Vast Majority Picks’
(30) Jelena Jankovic (SRB) d. Kateryna Bondarenko (UKR) 61 62 (95-5)
Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) d. Camila Giorgi (ITA) 63 64 (95-5)
Vera Dushevina (RUS) d. (Q) Nastassja Burnett (ITA) 60 63 (90-10)
(20) Roberta Vinci (ITA) d. Urszula Radwanska (POL) 61 61 (90-10)
Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) d. (LL) Eleni Daniilidou (GRE) 61 64 (90-10)
Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP) d. Ksenia Pervak (KAZ) 75 12 ret. (right thigh injury) (85-15)
Yaroslava Shvedova (KAZ) d. Vania King (USA) 64 62 (85-15)
Well, many of the against-the-grain picks here have certainly created upsets/ made progress in slams in the past, so they were pretty much all reasonable gambles. However, once again they were all pretty one-sided wins.
’Middle-Ground Picks’
Sofia Arvidsson (SWE) d. Kimiko Date-Krumm (JPN) 64 62 (60-40)
(Q) Johanna Konta (GBR) d. Timea Babos (HUN) 62 75 (60-40)
Mar’a JosŽ Mart’nez S‡nchez (ESP) d. Mirjana Lucic (CRO) 63 75 (55-45)
Sloane Stephens (USA) d. (22) Francesca Schiavone (ITA) 63 64 (40-60)
Greta Arn (HUN) d. Agnes Szavay (HUN) 64 32 ret. (low back injury) (35-65)
(Q) Tatjana Malek (GER) d. Akgul Amanmuradova (UZB) 46 62 64 (35-65)
Galina Voskoboeva (KAZ) d. Arantxa Rus (NED) 61 63 (35-65)
S’lvia Soler-Espinosa (ESP) d. (Q) Alla Kudryavtseva (RUS) 63 62 (30-70)
On paper, most of these were pretty evenly-matched players, and that was reflected in the picks – but once again, all of them bar the Malek/Akgul match were straight-sets wins.
A notable standout was certainly Sloane Stephens’ win over Fran Schiavone. There seems to be 2 types of upset win; one, where a player simply hits another player off the court – and the other where a player self-destructs and another player simply holds their game together.
It would appear that the Sloan/ Fran game fell into the latter category. Sloane is a solid player, good defence & technique – but Fran had a shocker, including 5 double faults in one service game alone! Still, fair play to the 40% of BOTPers who saw this result coming.
The other notable match from a UK viewpoint was JoKo’s win over Timea Babos. This is JoKo’s first ever win an a slam main draw. She fought back well from 5-1 down in the second set. Jo is 21, was born in Australia, but switched to UK nationality after having lived in UK since 2005.
’Minority Picks: Maverick Points Aplenty!’
(Q) Olga Puchkova (RUS) d. Irina Falconi (USA) 76(5) 67(2) 63 (25-75)
Andrea Hlavackova (CZE) d. (24) Klara Zakopalova (CZE) 64 64 (20-80)
Ayumi Morita (JPN) d. (26) Monica Niculescu (ROU) 62 63 (15-85)
Olga Govortsova (BLR) d. (29) Tamira Paszek (AUT) 63 64 (15-85)
Bojana Jovanovski (SRB) d. Mona Barthel (GER) 46 75 62 (5-95)
Elena Vesnina (RUS) d. (32) Peng Shuai (CHN) 76(5) 61 (5-95)
Puchkova’s win over the generally erratic/ poor Falconi was one of the rare pitch battles of the day, but with an outcome predicted by 25% of the BOTP crowd. Puchkovia was actually in the top 32 back in 2007, but has fallen off the map since then.
Well done to the 20% of BOTPers who predicted Halavackova’s win over Klara. These were nevets, SallyDaisy, James4578 and cazza99. I hadn’t realised that Klara is 0-9 on round 1 matches at the US Open – that is quite a remarkable statistic, and surely one that not many seeded players equal at any of the slams.
Other seeds to fall were Niggle-escu and Paszek. Govortsova was picked to beat Paszek by nevets, liam and tlim. Morita was picked by James4578 (again), nevets (yet again!) and tabbles. Inspired picked from all of you!
Well, Mona Barthel seems to have booked her residency in slumpsville, as well as compounding the bizarre early exodus of German players. However, in spite of her poor form of late, only one BOTPer picked the big-hitting Jovanovski to win. Well done Vivahate!
Well, Elena Vesnina has proven to be a decent singles player in the past – and for the second slam in a row, she’s knocked out a more favoured player. At SW19, she beat Venus – this time she despatched Peng Shuai. Again, only 1 BOTPer picked this – well doneicona!
BOTP Bagels!
Irina-Camelia Begu (ROU) d. (8) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 62 62 (0-100)
Kiki Bertens (NED) d. (21) Christina McHale (USA) 64 46 63 (0-100)
(Q) Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino (ESP) d. Shahar Peer (ISR) 64 76(5) (0-100)
In spite of Shahar having shown a lot of poor form in recent times, we all still picked her to beat another Spaniard with a long name.
If Kik Bertens rings a bell with you, then perhaps it is because she also caused a minor upset at Wimbledon this year, beating Lucie Safarova in the first round, which none of us predicted either! She also avenged her round 1 defeat by McHale at the French Open earlier this year.
Last and by no means least. Caro Wozniacki. Retired with an injury picked up at Newhaven just days ago. Clearly impeded by this in her match with Begu, and had an absolute shocker. 22 unforced errors.
Why does she always insist on playing tournaments so close to slams? She has said that she will go away and learn from this – she really ought to reconsider her scheduling.
Caro’s loss means that Sally has already lost her pick to win BOTP. 65% of folk had her reaching the quarter finals too.
BOTP day 02: Summary
It was a day of mixed fortunes for the BOTP gang, with just a 58% pick rate for the day – quite low for early on in the tournament. Top-scorer for the day was cazza with 24 out of 32 and moved up 2 places to top spot. Next highest for the day was tabbles with 21 pics, who moved up 8 places to 9th. James and [b]nevets[/b were next on 20 points, with James moving up 5 places to 5th.
At the other end, it wasn’t such a good day for DN, RL, DAR and fah51, who all took a bit of a tumble – and Sally gained a bit of ground on T01 but not enough to hand over residency of BOTP basement.
So, with everyone bar 4 folk changing places in the BOTP table, it really was BOTP musical chairs! Onwards to round 2/ day 3…
As a little p.s. to the report - a standout match from day 2 imo for many reasons was Vania King v Yaro Shvedova.
It is nice to see that the NY times did an article about this match. Really interesting in terms of psychology of playing against close friends on the tour.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/sports/double-partners-vania-king-and-yaroslava-shvedova-face-off-in-singles-match-at-us-open.html?_r=1&ref=sports
As a little p.s. to the report - a standout match from day 2 imo for many reasons was Vania King v Yaro Shvedova.
It is nice to see that the NY times did an article about this match. Really interesting in terms of psychology of playing against close friends on the tour.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/sports/double-partners-vania-king-and-yaroslava-shvedova-face-off-in-singles-match-at-us-open.html?_r=1&ref=sports
My PC doesn't accept cookies, so please can someone post the article, or PM me with it. ThanX.
Helen - I've sent you a pm..
Helen - I've sent you a pm..
Thanks super8 - gosh this win's scuppered my BOTP ;-)
I guess that the swing match would have been Clijsters v Na Li - but of course Laura has now put paid to that..
BOTP Report: Day 03
Hello! Day 03 saw completion of the 16 round 02 matches in the top half of the draw.
It is fair to say that the BOTP stats are relatively polarised!
’Home bankers’
(1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) d. (Q) Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) 62 62 (100-0)
(3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) d. Lourdes Dom’nguez Lino (ESP) 60 61 (100-0)
(5) Petra Kvitova (CZE) d. Alize Cornet (FRA) 64 63 (100-0)
(7) Samantha Stosur (AUS) d. (Q) Edina Gallovits-Hall (ROU) 63 60 (95-0)
(9) Li Na (CHN) d. Casey Dellacqua (AUS) 64 64 (95-0)
(19) Nadia PetrovaÊ(RUS) d. Simona HalepÊ(ROU) 61 61 (95-0)
(28) Zheng Jie (CHN) d. (Q) Magdalena Rybarikova (SVK) 63 61 (90-0)
Yip, everyone, or nearly everyone picked all of these correctly. No surprise there, especially as they are all seeded, top players against relatively lowly opponents.
Handy for all of us, though..
’Relatively Safe Bets’
(31) Varvara Lepchenko (USA) d. (Q) Anastasia Rodionova (AUS) 62 62 (75-15)
(11) Marion Bartoli (FRA) d. Romina Oprandi (SUI) 62 16 75 (75-0)
(15) Lucie Safarova (CZE) d. Aleksandra Wozniak (CAN) 63 46 62 (70-20)
These were slightly more evenly matched on paper, and were even reflected in the results, with 2 of these matches going to 3 sets. Those who hadn’t opted for Bartoli had picked Petko to blaze the comeback trail.
’Wild Card Wins/ BOTP Bakery aplenty!’
(WC) Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) d. (17) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) 61 62 (0-50)
Laura Robson (GBR) d. (23) Kim Clijsters (BEL) 76(4) 76(5) (5-95)
Pauline Parmentier (FRA) d. (25) Yanina Wickmayer (BEL) 76(5) 63 (0-95)
(WC) Mallory Burdette (USA) d. Lucie Hradecka (CZE) 62 64 (0-35)
Anna Tatishvili (GEO) d. Sorana Cirstea (ROU) 67(5) 61 62 (0-5)
Mandy Minella (LUX) d. (Q) Kristyna Pliskova (CZE) 64 64 (0-0)
Well, the BOTP stats do not look good for any of these 6 matches!!
The one that most probably won’t mind too much is Laura’s fabulous win against Kim. Liam Valid was the only person to predict that win (even though he thought that he hadn’t) well done Liam!
That result will have an impact in terms of those who chose Kim rather than Na Li to go deep into this tournament. 50% of BOTPers had picked Kim to reach the quarter finals, 20% semis and 10% to make the final! Those picking Kim might hope for Laura to continue her form into her next match with Li.
Well, well – when was the last time that 2 wild cards made it into the 3rd round out of 16 matches played? Kristina Mladenovic’s win over Annie Pav was a handy damage-limitation pick for the 45% who had picked Dani Hantuchova to make round 03 rather than Annie Pav. Similarly, Mallory Burdette’s win over Lucie Hradecka was a nice damage-limitation for those who had picked uber-pusher AMG to progress rather than Lucie H.
Tatishvili’s defeat of Sori Cirstea meant that Linda was denied a handy 2 points, being the only BOTPer with any points riding on this match. Everyone else had gone for Lisicki. Sori’s blogs for the US Open on the WTA site have been excellent btw..
What can one say about Parmentier’s win over Wicky, apart from ‘what on earth happened there?’? It’s the first time that Parmentier has gone beyond round 2 at Flushing Meadows. Mind you, apart from a decent grass court stint, Wicky’s form over the last few months has been ordinary.
It was a bad day for Belgian tennis, I guess, with Kim, Wicky, Flipkens all exiting the tournament (and Malisse on the ATP side too).
And finally, a double BOTP bagel as Mandy Minella beat Kris Plis. That one of course should have been Julia Goerges.
So, 6 matches there, and 1 correct pick out of a potential 120 BOTP picks. Slim pickings indeed…
BOTP Summary
Yet again, more musical chairs, with all bar 2 folk changing positions in the table. The first of those was Cazza at the top of the table, who joint-top-scored for the day along with 55% of BOTP folk , having 10 correct picks out of 16. Cazza has a handy 5-point lead over Linda in 2nd place. I recall these two battling it out at the US Open maybe in 2010, when Cazza pipped Linda at the post?
nevets and icona both took a wee bit of a tumble with 7 out of 16 picks, dropping 6 and 7 places to 8th and 18th respectively.
It was not a good day at all for the more maverick pickers. In spite of picking Laura’s win Liam did not have a great day with 6 picks, and dropping 5 places to 14th. Ubermaverick Sally also had a decidedly iffy day at the office with just 4 correct picks out of 16, and was the other person who didn’t move in the table, consolidating her residency in the BOTP basement.
It was not a great day overall with a pick rate of just 56%, which kind of reflects the 100%s and 0% - one extreme or the other! Hopefully the other 16 matches in round 2 later today will fall more in our favour.
BOTP Report: Day 04
Day 04 saw completion of the round 02 matches on the bottom half of the draw.
100%ers
(4) Serena Williams (USA) d. Mar’a JosŽ Mart’nez S‡nchez (ESP) 62 64 (100-0)
(12) Ana IvanovicÊ(SRB) d. Sofia ArvidssonÊ(SWE) 62 62 (100-0)
(14) Maria Kirilenko (RUS) d. Greta Arn (HUN) 63 62 (100-0)
(2) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) d. Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP) 46 63 60 (100-0)
Predictably Serena, Ana and Maria all comfortably through. Serena already looking quite fearsome. Well, it wasn’t plain sailing for Aga Rad, that’s for sure!
One or two detractors, but vast majority picks
(10) Sara Errani (ITA) d. Vera Dushevina (RUS) 60 61 (95-5)
(6) Angelique Kerber (GER) d. Venus Williams (USA) 62 57 75 (95-5)
(13) Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) d. Bojana Jovanovski (SRB) 76(3) 76(3) (95-0)
(30) Jelena Jankovic (SRB) d. (Q) Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino (ESP) 64 62 (85-0)
Little Dom had her work cut out, but again, comfortable wins for the seeded players here – with the notable exception of Angie Kerber who won ugly against Venus, who herself played ugly. 16 double faults and 60 UE’s. It made for a dramatic late night finish though!
Had Vee won, it would have been an excellent pick for nevets who gambled on Vee bringing her ‘A’ game to Arthur Ashe. It was more like her ‘C’ game, although she did battle. With 60% of BOTPers having Angie reaching the semi finals, there were a lot of points riding on this match!
Split Crowd
(20) Roberta Vinci (ITA) d. Yaroslava Shvedova (KAZ) 36 75 75 (60-35)
The split in the BOTP crowd was reflected by the scoreline! What’s more, Yaro had 2 match points, and won more points overall. A gutsy, competitive match.
Middle Ground
Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) d. Ayumi Morita (JPN) 75 62 (60-5)
Sloane Stephens (USA) d. (Q) Tatjana Malek (GER) 57 64 62 (40-0)
Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) d. Elena Vesnina (RUS) 63 64 (30-0)
A good percentage of BOTP folk predicted these wins. Ekat Mak’s win in the all-Russian encounter was handy for 30% of folk – the other 70% went for Peng Shuai.
Sloane Stevens is continuing to make waves on the tour – and this, not too long after her good showing at RG. Handy for 40% who backed her, not so for the 60% who backed Fran Schiavone!
Tsveti v Morita was an even matchup. 60% went for the Bularian, 30% had picked Niculescu..
Surprise Packages
Olga Govortsova (BLR) d. (Q) Johanna Konta (GBR) 26 62 75 (10-10)
Andrea Hlavackova (CZE) d. Galina Voskoboeva (KAZ) 62 67(3) 63 (5-5)
(Q) Olga Puchkova (RUS) d. Kiki Bertens (NED) 57 62 75 (0-0)
S’lvia Soler-Espinosa (ESP) d. Irina-Camelia Begu (ROU) 64 76(5) (0-0)
JoKo was so close to her secod slam win. She was up 5-2 in the final set, and served for the match twice – but lost the last 5 games of the match. Had she won, it would have been points for liam and sallydaisy – but instead it was nevets and tlim who claimed the points here – well done both of you! The rest of us picked Paszek.
Only 1 BOTPer backed Andrea H and Galina – so it was cazza v nevets – with cazza picking up the 2 points. Bravo cazza!! The rest of us picked Klara Zak or Aranxta Rus.
A couple of double-bagels for us too though. We all picked Wozniacki rather than Espinosa, and McHale rather than Puchkova. Big fat zeroes for all of us, then.
BOTP Summary
Once again, it was plenty of change, showing some diversity in the picks. It might look as if we’re all picking the same players at times, but we are all varying our scores somewhat.
We seem to have settled on a pick rate of about 60%, which was the rough rate for today – i.e. about 10 picks out of 16. Top scorers for today with 11 picks out of 16 were cazza, linda, Tabbles and nevets - who, as it happens all occupy the top 4 places in the BOTP table – and tlim, who moved a handy 4 places to 10th.
No-one had fewer than 9 picks, so overall none of us really crashed and burned. cazza has a handy 5 point lead over linda, and linda a 3 point lead over [b]tabbles, but from then on, just 4 points separate 4th and 12th. With 3 points per win in round 3, there is plenty of ground that can rapidly be gained on the front-runners.
As things stand, there are 17 different players picked to make the quarter finals. Of those 17, only 3 have been knocked out so far – Schiavone, Wozniacki and Clijsters – and given that Fran and Caro were vying for the same QF slot, that evens things out a little bit.
So, the long and short of it is that there is still plenty to play for – and bags of time to the chasing pack to gain ground. We will just have to see how these matches unfold.
BOTP Report: Day 05
Well, after 4 days of the 2-week tournament, 96 of the 127 matches had already been played. Time for the schedule to thin out somewhat to a more manageable 8 matches to plug into the BOTP report and report on!
So – results and BOTP stats for the round 3 matches from the top half of the draw are as follows:
'Top Seeds Running Exactly to Form'
(1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) d. (28) Zheng Jie (CHN) 60 61 (100-0)
(3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) d. (WC) Mallory Burdette (USA) 61 61 (100-0)
(5) Petra Kvitova (CZE) d. Pauline Parmentier (FRA) 64 64 (100-0)
(7)Samantha Stosur (AUS) d. (31) Varvara Lepchenko (USA) 76(5) 62 (95-5)
Vika and Sharpie are doing a fine job in making their matches very uncompetitive and pretty boring for those who want dramatic, titanic epics on Ashe. Petra Kvitova also pretty much hitting through her opponents.
Stosur initially struggled against a big-hitting leftie in Lepchenko, squeaking through a tight tie break. Lepchenko has had a good year, but has yet to really trouble top 10 players.
We all picked these, with the exception of icona, who was the sole BOTPer to pick Lepchenko.
'Middle-Ground Picks'
(11) Marion Bartoli (FRA) d. (WC) Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) 62 64 (65-0)
(19) Nadia Petrova (RUS) d. (15) Lucie Safarova (CZE) 64 75 (45-40)
Straightforward wins for the more second-tiered group of seeded players. Those that didn’t pick Bartoli went for either Annie Pav, Dani H or Petko. Bartoli will play Kvitova next. Kvitova beat Bartoli 6-1, 6-1 at Rogers cup 3 weeks ago, so should probably fancy her chances with that one.
BOTP picks were more evenly split for Petrova and Safarova, with the Russian prevailing. Sharapova awaits her in the next round., against which she is 1-8 in the head to head.
'BOTP Bagels: Laura Does it again!!'
Laura Robson (GBR) d. (9) Li Na (CHN) 64 67(5) 62 (0-40)
Anna Tatishvili (GEO) d. Mandy Minella (LUX) 75 60 (0-0)
Another fabulous victory by Laura Robson!! Not only her first top 10 victory, but also her first top 20 victory, too – and against one of the form players of the US HC summer swing! All kinds of new landmarks with this one. When did a British WTA player last beat 2 slam champions in a slam? Perhaps in the 1970s (no idea!)
Laura has another slam champion in the next round in Sam Stosur. Fingers crossed that Laura can continue this wonderful form.
Laura’s win was handy for those who predicted that Kim Clijsters would do deep into this tournament. It is potentially also handy for those who predicted that Sam Stosur would do well. Those who predicted that Na Li or Kim would do well might want to hope that Laura will beat the muscular Australian. This might include tlim in particular who had picked Na as his finalist from the top half of the draw.
Laura’s draw is in fact littered with slam champions. In the WTA side of things, tt is currently not that unusual for a player to beat 3 former slam winners on their way to winning a slam. Laura could potentially have to beat 6.
Anna Tatishvili’s win over Mandy Minella means that she reaches the 4th round for the first time. No-one here predicted either player would get past the second round, even – so BOTP double bagel here. It should have been an all-German matchup of Lisicki (80%) against Goerges (20%). Tatishvili is likely to be cannon fodder for Vika in the next round.
BOTP Summary: Day 05
With the exception of the trio of BOTPers at the bottom of the table, everyone got either 5 or 6 correct picks out of 8, with the difference being whether you picked Bartoli and Petrova or not.
Those that did were tabbles, big al, mojo, Roastlamb, and DaveArneRiise, who all moved up the BOTP table as a result. tabbles joined linda in second place, Al up 1 to 4th. Mojo, RL and DAR all made bigger jumps to 5th, 7th and 14th, showing how more tightly-packed the middle of the table is.
cazza retained the 5-point cushion that she obtained from the round 01 picks, but as the points per correct pick increase, it might just take one different pick to swing things, especially as everyone still has so many of their finalists, semi finalists, and even quarter finalists still left in the draw.
RoastLamb
01-09-2012, 14:27
Finally! :cheer:
Hello!
Here is the BOTP table after day 06. Report to follow at some stage tomorrow.
Finally! :cheer:
Yip - onwards and upwards..!
JAMES4578
03-09-2012, 06:32
Upset of the night was Kvitova going down in three to Bartoli and after easily taking the 1st Petra won only 2 more games in the next 2 sets. Petra suffers from asthma and some reports suggesting this could have been a factor though Marion by all accounts found some hot form! So I have lost a finalist and doubt I'll really be chalenging this time! Thought I was taking a risk, whilst Petra had a successful hard court run up, winning 2 tournaments and reaching another semi there was always the possibility she had overplayed.
Hello,
Haven't had time to write report for Saturday's matches (day 6) - so here are the results/ stats - hope to edit this later today, and write just a little bit about things.
Singles -Third Round
(2) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) d. (30) Jelena Jankovic (SRB) 63 75 (90-5)
(4) Serena Williams (USA) d. Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) 64 60 (100-0)
(6) Angelique Kerber (GER) d. Olga Govortsova (BLR) 61 62 (95-0)
(10) Sara Errani (ITA) d. (Q) Olga Puchkova (RUS) 61 61 (70-0)
(12) Ana Ivanovic (SRB) d. Sloane Stephens (USA) 67(4) 64 62 (65-20)
(20) Roberta Vinci (ITA) d. (13) Dominika Cibulkova (SVK) 62 75 (10-60)
Andrea Hlavackova (CZE) d. (14) Maria Kirilenko (RUS) 57 64 64 (0-95)
Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) d. S’lvia Soler-Espinosa (ESP) 61 67(3) 63 (10-0)
Here is the BOTP table, results and stats after day 07:
Singles - Fourth Round
(1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) d. Anna Tatishvili (GEO) 62 62 (100-0)
(3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) d. (19) Nadia Petrova (RUS) 61 46 64 (100-0)
(11) Marion Bartoli (FRA) d. (5) Petra Kvitova (CZE) 16 62 60 (0-100)
(7) Samantha Stosur (AUS) d. Laura Robson (GBR) 64 64 (25-0)
Upset of the night was Kvitova going down in three to Bartoli and after easily taking the 1st Petra won only 2 more games in the next 2 sets. Petra suffers from asthma and some reports suggesting this could have been a factor though Marion by all accounts found some hot form! So I have lost a finalist and doubt I'll really be chalenging this time! Thought I was taking a risk, whilst Petra had a successful hard court run up, winning 2 tournaments and reaching another semi there was always the possibility she had overplayed.
It was quite a surprise, especially as Kvitova won the first set 6-1 - as she had done in both sets that they played in Montreal 3 weeks ago.
It will indeed impact those who predicted Kvitova to go far in the tournament, though to what extent depends on results over the next few rounds..
RoastLamb
03-09-2012, 15:05
I was suitably :shocked: Interesting don't you think that the two women who dominated the warm-up tournaments both went out early here.
BOTP: Day 08
Here are the results/ BOTP Stats
Singles - Fourth Round
(20) Roberta Vinci (ITA) d. (2) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) 61 64 (0-85)
(4) Serena Williams (USA) d. Andrea Hlavackova (CZE) 60 60 (100-0)
(10) Sara Errani (ITA) d. (6) Angelique Kerber (GER) 76(5) 63 (5-90)
(12) Ana IvanovicÊ(SRB) d.ÊTsvetana PironkovaÊ(BUL) 60 64 (20-0)
I suppose Errani's defeat of Kerber shouldn't have been too much of a surprise. She also beat Kerber at the French Open this year. Also, Sara has reached the quarter finals or better in 3 of the slams this year. What a year she's having! Well done to Sally for being the only BOTPer to pick the diminuitive Italian.
Robbie Vinci's defeat of Aga Rad was a combination of skilful slicing & dicing, and audacious net approaches with strong volleying to back it up. It had shades of Sveta's shock defeat of Aga at the French Open.
Aga's defeat meant that those predicting Kerber to progress got out of jail as it deprived those picking Aga of some big BOTP points. As it turned out, no-one has picked Errani or Vinci to make the semis - so it is a great leveller.
Well done to Ivanovic for making the quarters - her forehand does look on song. And Serena serving a double bagel over poor Andrea was a real statement of intent.
Summary
It was a pretty disastrous day for all of us, with only 5 people having more than 1 correct pick! Sally and Icona gained ground on liam in their own wee contest to get out of the BOTP basement - they were 2 of the 5 folk who top-scored today.
Others with 2 out of 4 included Helen40, Mojo and T01 all of whom picked Ivanovic (as did Icona). They all moved up 2 places into the top 6.
Otherwise, no change at the top. And we're down to the last 8:
Vika v Stosur
Masha v Bartoli
Serena v Ivanovic
Vinci v Errani
I suspect that it might be how the top half of the draw turns out, that determines the outcome of this BOTP.
I was suitably :shocked: Interesting don't you think that the two women who dominated the warm-up tournaments both went out early here.
It was strange, wasn't it - especially as Kvitova and Li are generally so good on hard courts. Both have had good success at the Australian Open too. Maybe due to overplaying? I am baffled that so many players choose to play in so many tournaments, and often so close to a slam. It does seem quite risky, and not many players seem to win back-to-back tournaments with one being a slam.
Bartoli had stated quite openly that she was out for revenge for her defeat by Kvitova at Montreal - and I guess that she got it!
BOTP Report: Day 09
Well, the rain-affected weather resulted in there being just the 1 game to report on today, rather than 2 quarter final matches shceduled.
(1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) d. (7) Samantha Stosur (AUS) 61 46 76(5) (65-10)
Well, at 5 points apiece in the tie-break, this match was on a knife edge. But 2 good points from Shrieky Vicky sealed the match.
Most of us picked this - the BOTPers backing Sam had been Sally and Tabbles. 20% of BOTPers had gone for Kim Clijsters, and 5% had picked Na Li (I think that this was tlim).
BOTP Summary
Well, the 5 point lead that cazza picked up in the very first round is proving to be very handy! However, had Sam Stosur won the last 2 points of the match, then tabbles would have displaced her at the top of the table.
As things turned out tabbles took a wee bit of a tumble, to the benefit of Linda, al, mojo and t01 who now occupy 2nd to 4th equal. helen took a bit of a tumble too, falling from 4th to 9th.
The Bartoli v Sharpie match has been recheduled for today, along with the quarter finals from the bottom half of the draw. Whether the weather plays a role again remains to be seen.
Thanks Super8. Do you mean that Sally and Tabbles picked Sam? It looks as though you're saying they picked Vika.
Thanks Super8. Do you mean that Sally and Tabbles picked Sam? It looks as though you're saying they picked Vika.
Good spot - thanks for that. They did indeed pick Sam!!
BOTP Report - Day 10
Day 10 saw completion of the remaining 3 quarter final matches. Results and BOTP stats as follows:
(3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) d. (11) Marion Bartoli (FRA) 36 63 64 (65-0)
(4) Serena Williams (USA) d. (12) Ana Ivanovic (SRB) 61 63 (95-0)
(10) Sara Errani (ITA) d. (20) Roberta Vinci (ITA) 62 64 (0-0)
Sharpie's win was of course handy for the 65% who had picked her to reach the semis. It was not so handy for the 35% who had picked Kvitova.
Serena's semi final appearance was of little surprise to you all, although there was one lone dissenter in Sally, who had picked Wozniacki to make the semis.
Errani was too consistent for her doubles partner. None of us predicted either of these players. The picks had been Kerber (60%), Aga (35%) and Venus (5%). Vinci and Errani have made the doubles semi final. Errani is now the number 1 ranked WTA doubles player.
BOTP Summary
Sharpie's win against Bartoli kept things bubbling nicely in BOTP terms. It meant that 30% of BOTP folk had 3 semi finalists. Those picking Masha included cazza, linda and al who consolidated their places in the top 3. All others picking her moved up a few places in the table.
Everyone has at least 1 semi finalist left, and everyone has at least 1 finalist left too - and not all Serena! 3 matches to go, and with points riding on every player left (apart from Errani) there is still potential for yet more changes in the BOTP table.
Any update on this please super8?
BOTP Results/ Stats: Day 12 (Semi Finals)
Hello!
Here are the results and BOTP stats for yesterday's women's semi finals:
Singles - Semifinals
(1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) d. (3) Maria Sharapova (RUS) 36 62 64 30-35
(4) Serena Williams (USA) d. (10) Sara Errani (ITA) 61 62 95-0
95% of folk predicted that Serena would win the final - statistically predictable, but after winning SW19 and the Olympics - and also with her French Open & Australian Open results in mind, well, there was always that slight possibility that she would not dominate as she has.
A slight possibility - but not enough to convince everyone, bar Sally that Serena would make the final. And so she did, with ease. Errani played a clay court game, but really had little to no chance.
On the other hand, Shrieky Vicky v Shrieky Sharpie was a right battle royale. 'First-strike', attritional baseline tennis. Brutal. Sharpie hit more than twice as many winners as Vika, but Vika's superior defence prevailed.
It was very much a BOTP swing match, with 30% backing for Vika and 35% for Sharpie. The other picks were Na Li (5%), Clijsters (10%), Kvitova (20%) - 5 picks for the top half finalist rather than just the 2 for the bottom half finalist. The top half was certainly a tougher and more open half.
So. Final is between the Australian Open champ and the WImbledon/ Olympic champ.
Something's got to give.
BOTP Summary
Well, the Vika v Sharpie result is actually pivotal to the BOTP outcome.
Whilst cazza99 remains top of the BOTP table, she only remains so because of Vika's win.
If Sharpie had won, then Linda would have moved to the top of the table, and cazza's chance of winning BOTP would have gone. It would have then been a face-off between linda and tabbles for the BOTP title. Had Sharapova gone on to win the title, then tabbles would have won. Had Serena then beaten Sharpie, then Linda would have won BOTP.
But these are all ifs, buts and maybes.
The fact that Vika won means that Cazza99 has correctly picked both finalists, and has already won BOTP, irrespective of the result of the final.
What's more, she will win it by a minimum margin of 6 points. Well played Cazza!!!
The other final positions in the BOTP table could still change, depending on the outcome of the final. However, as things stand, Vika's win means that Roastlamb has moved up 4 places into joint 2nd with linda, and Mojo & T01 have also moved up 4 places to joint 4th with Big Al. Others picking Vika were Vivahate who moved up 1 place to 9th and nevets who moved up 2 places to 11th.
At the other end of the table, poor Sally is the only BOTPer who has lost both of her finalists, and makes the residency of the BOTP basement her own. In BOTB terms, gorillas and bananas would get a mention.
The women's final has already been delayed as a result of the weather, and may yet be delayed further. however, a final report will follow shortly after, whenever it is played, with a bit of extra BOTP info - so please do check it out.
Well done Cazza! :clap: :clap:
JAMES4578
09-09-2012, 12:56
Marvellous Cazza, well done!:clap::clap: Didn't have a great tournament this time! Picking Kvitova to reach the final set me back but wasn't the only reason.
RoastLamb
09-09-2012, 14:34
Well done cazza! Excellent stuff. And i'm happy to be second. Yay!
JAMES4578
09-09-2012, 14:50
Well done Fiona too!
Hello!
Final BOTP Table here:
Will round things up in a wee report tomorrow, as it is late now..
BOTP: Belated Final Report
Hello again!
My apologies for being a bit late with this - last night was kind of taken up with watching a bit of a the tennis.. :whistle:
(4) Serena Williams (USA) d. (1) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) 6-2, 2-6, 7-5 85-5
Well, Serena was of course the favourite to win this one, as the 85% BOTP backing clearly showed! However, inexplicably she went from her 'A' game in set 1 to her 'C' game in set 2, and for a bit of set 3 - so much so that she was down 5-3 in the final set, with Vika serving for the match at 5-4. However, Serena found some of her mojo again, twinned with a bit of inexperience from Vika - and Serena met her destiny quite dramatically.
It is safe to say that Serena is well and truly back. Since her shock result at RG, she has won 25 of her last 26 matches. She seems hungry for more, too.
Credit to Vika for hanging in there, I guess. The sole BOTPer to pick her was T01 - and so nearly proved to be an inspired maverick pick.
BOTP: Summary
Well, given that 85% of folk picked Serena, there wasn't a whole lot of change in the final table. It turned out to be a 1-2-3 for am.com (or 1 and joint 2nds?) with cazza of course in pole position, and Linda & RoastLamb in joint second. Bravo!!
There were 3 BOTP folk who didn't pick Serena. T01 dropped 6 places to 10th - but had Vika won, would have finished 2nd, just 6 points behind cazza - quite a different outcome!
Tabbles could so easily have won the whole thing, had just 2 results gone her way, i.e. Sharapova won her semi and the tournament. But also not picking Serena meant a tumble of 4 places to 11th.
The final BOTPer not to pick Serena was Sally, who picked Wozniacki, and therefore remained in residence in the BOTP basement by a fair distance. Considering the general unpredictability of the women's game, there were probably very few huge surprises - maybe 4? I'm thinking Laura's 2 wins and Robbie Vinci's win over Aga Rad, and possibly Errani's win over Kerber.
In spite of that, overall the BOTP crowd did ok - 58% is a decent pick rate, compared with previous BOTP's.
And speaking of previous BOTPs..
1. BOTP Rankings
I am thinking that maybe there should be a wee BOTP ranking system set up - perhaps that would be fun?
2. BOTP Roll Call
I am also thinking of maintaining a wee list of BOTP champions, especially as I think that cazza has won US Open more than once, and Linda has been runner-up more than once.
3. BOTP Mailing List
Given that both sites don't seem to send e-mails when pm's are sent, I thought that it would be a good idea to have a mailing list for BOTP.
If I have your e-mail address already, then I can include you automatically.
If I don't, then please either pm me your address, or send a wee e-mail to ccbotp@hotmail.com
Not only could I send you a reminder about BOTP - I could also e-mail you an entry form directly.
So.. a few ideas, and would welcome any input.
Well, that just about wraps things up for the US Open BOTP for 2012. Many thanks for taking part - I hope that you enjoyed it, and once again that it has added to the general enjoyment of the tournament. I would certainly think that Laura Robson has lit up proceedings for many!
Over and out..
JAMES4578
11-09-2012, 22:08
Thanks for running it again Super8 and for the entertaining reports!
RoastLamb
11-09-2012, 22:17
Yes, i echo James in thanking you. Great job! I think this is my best result. Thanks to Serena. I'm chuffed that three of us took the top spots. Girl power!
Well done Linda and Roastlamb :)
Thanks for running the comp Super8. Sending an email reminder is a great idea. Please add my email to the list.
Thanks for a great comp, Super8!
Congrats to Cazza and RoastLamb! :clap: :clap:
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