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MJAppleby
27-12-2011, 21:02
I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this, so feel free to move it if needed. I wrote this article summarising Murray's year for Swinging Balls (http://swingingballs.co.uk/magazine/) at the start of December and due to some server problems it is yet to be posted, so I thought I'd post it here anyway. Any feedback, positive or negative, would be appreciated.


The tennis season has barely finished and players are already beginning their preparations for the 2012 season. For Andy Murray in particular, such preparations could be the difference between winning that elusive first Grand Slam and being labelled the greatest player never to win a Slam.

Three Slam finals have passed Murray by, with the British No.1 failing to claim a set in any of the meetings, most recently in Melbourne at the start of 2011. With Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal already out of the Australian Open, Murray was given the favourite's tag going into his final with Novak Djokovic. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, as Djokovic has gone on to produce some scintillating and remarkable tennis in capturing three of the four Slams this year.

The final itself was a disappointment, as Djokovic broke Murray’s serve at 5-4 in the First Set, and the outcome from that point seemed inevitable. Murray, who had played some sublime tennis to reach the final, was dismantled by Djokovic in a straight sets defeat. In the aftermath of that defeat, Murray endured a slump in form, losing his opening match in three separate tournaments.

The slump was ended in Monte Carlo, where the Scot gave a surprisingly good account of himself on his least favourite surface, clay. A Semi-Final defeat to Nadal was a sign of improvement, which was built on in Rome, where Murray pushed Djokovic all the way in one of the matches of the year, the Serb coming up trumps in a pulsating encounter.

Murray’s good clay-court form continued, as he reached the Semi-Finals at Roland Garros, despite playing with an ankle injury, eventually succumbing to a straight sets defeat to Nadal.

The British no.1 enjoyed his first taste of silverware of the 2011 season on home soil at Queen’s, fending off the threat of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. SW19 was the next destination and after a nervy start to the tournament, Murray breezed into another Semi-Final with Nadal and looked well placed for a first Wimbledon final after claiming the First Set.

It was not to be the case, Nadal capitalising on some near misses from Murray and rocketing into his fifth Wimbledon final, eventually losing out to Djokovic, who went on to claim the No.1 Ranking.

A shock defeat to Kevin Anderson in Montreal followed, which kicked Murray into gear in Cincinnati, with the Scot inflicting one of only 7 defeats for Djokovic in 2011. Onto Flushing Meadows for the US Open and a Second Round tie with Robin Haase proved to be a thriller, as Murray came back from 2 sets down to book his place in the next round. A Quarter-Final victory over John Isner meant a third Grand Slam Semi-Final with Nadal was in store, one which struggled to match the expectations.

Nadal appeared to be in Superman mode, as he flew across court and raced to a 2 set lead. Although Murray fought back to claim the Third Set, the damage had already been done and another year was to end without a Slam.

The disappointment of that defeat was countered by the 16 game unbeaten run that was to follow, with Murray winning in Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai as part of an Asian Swing hat-trick. As the season reached an end, Murray briefly overtook Federer to become No.3 in the world, the first time he had achieved a higher ranking than Federer in his career.

Aside from the obvious, a target for Murray in 2012 should be to regain the No.3 ranking, and if he continues his form from 2011, it wouldn’t be unrealistic. 2011 has seen Murray improve his consistency, particularly in the Slams, where he reached at least the Semi-Final on each occasion.
Murray also claimed 5 titles, only bettered by his collection of 6 in 2009, whilst his clay-court play has improved to a point where he is now in contention for titles during a period in the season where he had previously expected very little.

One major concern is the amount of tennis to be played in 2012, a packed schedule includes the Olympics and possibly a collection of Davis Cup matches. Last month's World Tour Finals should be a note of caution to the Murray camp going into the New Year, increasing the importance of a structured training programme to best prepare Murray for the 2012 season.

Murray is a fine exponent of finding an opponent’s weakness, yet he often gifts his opponent insight into how he is feeling by hurling abuse at himself or his team. For someone who has the ability to outsmart many an opponent, channelling his own aggression would be a step in the right direction as Murray enters a crucial stage in his career.

Is it really now or never?

JAMES4578
27-12-2011, 21:38
Sorry about the problem with Swinging Balls, but good to see your article here anyway! I think it's a good account Andy's year which I believe was probably his best ever season and certainly his most consistent. However, he sdid have some lapses at crucial times which he needs to guard against. It's a tough era but if Andy can find a bit extra and combine the best tactics and mental approach I'm sure a slam is within his reach and whilst I'm not putting a timescale on it 2012 would be a great moment to do it! Of course it is a bit of a crowded calendar and Murray needs to manasged his schedule carefullly, considering the set back at the end of this season after that fine run. I think at times his serve needs to be more consistent, but I'm sure he's working at that

Linda
28-12-2011, 22:35
Thanks MJAppleby for an interesting article.

I too have been thinking about what might happen in the coming year, and what ranking Andy might achieve (of course I've also been thinking about this for reasons of making my Top 8 predictions).

Looking at the past few years, it is obvious that, especially since the revised ranking points, winning slams is what makes the top positions. Anyone who wins three slams in a year is guaranteed the no.1. Anyone winning two slams, provided the other two are won by two different players, is also likely to end up as no.1.

So what of the 2011 top players and how are they likely to do in 2012?

Djokovic, Nadal and Federer are all multiple slam winners and perfectly likely to win more slams. Giving his 2011 results, Djokovic is likely to be favourite going into AO. But can he repeat the stupendous year he's just had? A year like that is unlikely to be repeated - but he is surely likely to win at least one and maybe two slams in 2012. Federer is no longer as consistent as he was but still capable of pulling it off on the big occasion. Nadal has had a year interrupted by illnesses and minor injuries. It's reported that he currently has a shoulder injury which may result in his withdrawal from Abu Dhabi, he's also had yet another virus, and was only able to play the DC final with cortisone injections in both knees. However, if he can remain reasonably fit, he should win another RG.

Skipping Murray for the moment, we come to Ferrer, the current no. 5, who is a consistent player but will almost certainly never win a slam.

Then we come to Murray, Tsonga and Berdych, all of whom have reached slam finals, and all of whom have been defeated more by their own mental demons than their opponents. Any one of these can win a slam if he overcomes these mental demons.

And then we come to the possible upset - Del Potro, currently ranked 11, but a previous slam winner. I believe he is still capable of winning another slam despite his recent DC losses to Nadal and Ferrer.

So, am I willing to make prections for 2012? I would rather wait until after the Abu Dhabi exho, which will be our first look at some of the top players this year. However, if I have to stick my neck out, I will go for:

AO: Andy Murray
RG: Rafael Nadal
W: Novak Djokovic
USO: JM Del Potro

Of course if this should actually happen, that the 4 slams are won by 4 different players, then the year end no.1 will be totally up for grabs. It will mainly depend on how they do in Masters tournaments and possibly lower tournaments as well. Of course the player with the best record in Masters is Nadal, who should be in with a shot, but on the past year's form, it could be Djokovic again.

Anyway, I'll wait until after Abu Dhabi to make my Top 8 predictions.

MurrayAOne
28-12-2011, 22:48
Thanks MJAppleby for that article. I do think tho that you shdnt hold your breath for Andy not to show that emotion. It's part of his make up and why he cares so much. Harness it a bit yes. I also dont think it's 'now or never'. In fact I think it's those three words that cause problems of pressure. I support Andy during every match and want him to win every point but I never like to say he SHOULD win this or he SHOULD win that. Would love to see him do it of course - but his natural talent is sublime and that is enough for me.

MJAppleby
29-12-2011, 01:07
Thanks Linda for a thoughtful preview for 2012, I am currently thinking about my own predictions, but one thing I would say is that I'd back Federer to win a Slam in 2012. I base this purely on his end of season form this year which has shown that he can still mix it with the best.

As MurrayAOne points out my phrasing of 'now or never' does potentially add pressure onto Murray, which is not what I was intending. A poor choice of words looking at it again, I'm more than happy to watch and follow Andy's career whether he wins a Slam or not because his style of play will always make me want to watch his matches.

Perhaps what I meant to say is that I hope this will be Murray's year to win a Slam because it will release any and all pressure that has built up on Andy and then I'd be confident of further success.

Either way, I'm looking forward to 2012.

david1610
29-12-2011, 02:52
T

AO: Andy Murray
RG: Rafael Nadal
W: Novak Djokovic
USO: JM Del Potro

Of course if this should actually happen, that the 4 slams are won by 4 different players, then the year end no.1 will be totally up for grabs. It will mainly depend on how they do in Masters tournaments and possibly lower tournaments as well. Of course the player with the best record in Masters is Nadal, who should be in with a shot, but on the past year's form, it could be Djokovic again.

Anyway, I'll wait until after Abu Dhabi to make my Top 8 predictions.
Interesting, Linda.
A crucial factor this year will be how much of Rafa's clay dominance (and rankings points accumulation) Nole can (once again) take from Rafa. The clay-only part of the season is not that long, but given RG and the 3 Master's (forgetting the Barcelona 500) Rafa could count on a possible 5000 points, or very close, give or take a loss or two. Given it takes a superhuman effort to win Miami AND Indian Wells, or Cincinatti AND Toronto/Montreal (well you don't), unless you have a year like Djokovic did in 2011, and Shanghai and Paris tend to be influenced by the "survival of the fittest/last man standing", it is very difficult for any player to gain a significant advantage from the other Master's.
If Rafa is not fully fit, to be honest I would love Andy to be in his side of the draw at the AO (preferably avoiding Tsonga and Berdych and del Potro as well ).
Apart from points to be gained from the early Master's exits in 2011, he also has a lot of points to be defended.
I am not going to read too much into Brisbane as I still do not know if Andy's pre-training has been effected by recovery from the groin injury.
Yet again I wish he would go to the US after Australia and play tourneys like Memphis and avoid Europe in February and the (presumably financial) attractions of Dubai. I think it would be less taxing (no pun intended).

More importantly of course, is whether Andy can click in a similar way to how Nole did a year ago.

And I just hope Mr. Cahill has had some input recently. Although my heart hoped otherwise, I felt Andy was beaten last year in the AO final five minutes after he had walked out on court and before the start of play.

Looking in Andy's corner I still do not see the world class coaching presence in a tangible way. I said years ago when Brad went that he might be most missed around GS finals and if Andy is able to get to another one this time, I hope a couple of clicks inside him in 2012 can compensate for that lack of a world class coach in his corner.

Happy to be proved wrong and hopefully Andy himself will decide "it is time"!

RoastLamb
29-12-2011, 16:37
I can only see Federer winning a slam if the other two are injured or off form. If Djoko is 100% then he is unbeatable.

MurrayAOne
29-12-2011, 19:48
I can only see Federer winning a slam if the other two are injured or off form. If Djoko is 100% then he is unbeatable.

Can't agree there. If Djoko is 100% and Andy is 100% Andy would have the edge. Firmly believe that. In full flow HE is unbeatable.

Alis
29-12-2011, 20:38
I can only see Federer winning a slam if the other two are injured or off form. If Djoko is 100% then he is unbeatable.

IMO Federer's end of season success has been grossly over-rated - he didn't mix it with the best because the best were either injured or exhausted.

Golden Lady
29-12-2011, 20:49
IMO Federer's end of season success has been grossly over-rated - he didn't mix it with the best because the best were either injured or exhausted.

Yes, it's the same as last year. Fed came in for the swoop at the end of the season, then suddenly everyone was talking about his domination in 2011!!

Although I don't expect him to win a slam in 2012, I wouldn't put it past him should an opportunity open up for whatever reason. The man knows how to win, unfortunately.

RoastLamb
30-12-2011, 03:29
Can't agree there. If Djoko is 100% and Andy is 100% Andy would have the edge. Firmly believe that. In full flow HE is unbeatable.

I meant against Rafa and Federer, not Andy. :)

Linda
30-12-2011, 11:04
Totally agree that Fed took the advantage of everyone else being worn out at the end of the year. None of the top players is unbeatable, they can all beat each other.

RoastLamb
30-12-2011, 11:36
Well Djoko beat Rafa and Fed gazillions of time last year when he was 100%. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Linda
30-12-2011, 11:41
True, I'm watching Djoko beat Fed at the moment and the way he is playing, it looks like he'll be winning everything again. :rolleyes:

MurrayAOne
30-12-2011, 12:09
Well Djoko beat Rafa and Fed gazillions of time last year when he was 100%. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Top marks for using the word 'gazillions'!!! Marvelous...

Murray's_Backhand
02-01-2012, 17:44
Hey guys not had any time to post for so long now but im making a promise i will be back in full MB form for 2012. Thought i would post here to comment on Andy's fantastic year. 2011 was amazing year, a couple of points here and there and he makes it even better. I have NEVER been so excited about an Andy season. 2012 is his. I guarantee he wins in Australia. That folks is an MB guarantee.

Alis
02-01-2012, 17:48
Really hope you're right MB!

Murray's_Backhand
02-01-2012, 17:50
Trust me :) Our boy's taking it.

MurrayAOne
02-01-2012, 20:04
Go andyyyyyyyyy!!!

david1610
02-01-2012, 20:58
I
Looking in Andy's corner I still do not see the world class coaching presence in a tangible way. I said years ago when Brad went that he might be most missed around GS finals and if Andy is able to get to another one this time, I hope a couple of clicks inside him in 2012 can compensate for that lack of a world class coach in his corner.

Happy to be proved wrong and hopefully Andy himself will decide "it is time"!
Well he certainly decided it was time to sort out having a multiple GS winner in his box!

MurrayAOne
31-01-2012, 21:14
I just wanted to use my 500th post to say well done to Andy on an excellent start to the year. He played brilliantly at the Australian Open and there are so many positives to be taken from the fortnight. I am really looking forward to watching and cheering him on throughout the rest of the year. I am, and always will be, proud to be a supporter.

Linda
31-01-2012, 23:05
Well done on your 500th post! :clap: :clap:

patmoren
01-02-2012, 19:53
Interesting views from all. Andy is a bit of an enigma and will always suprise us, either for good or bad.